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You are here: CAPP releases 2006 Canadian Crude Oil ForecastCALGARY May 17, 2006 – Production of crude oil in Canada is set to nearly double by 2020, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) said today in its annual Crude Oil Forecast that significantly increases the projections from last year. The 2006 forecast extends out an additional five years from last year’s forecast and highlights growth in production from Alberta’s oil sands as a result of newly announced projects and the expansions of existing operations. Total Canadian oil production is projected to increase from 2.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2005 to 4.6 million b/d in 2015 – an increase of 750,000 b/d from CAPP’s 2005 forecast. Growth after 2015 will bring total Canadian production to nearly 4.9 million b/d by 2020. The growing production will need more pipeline capacity to meet demand from new and expanded markets. A number of new pipelines and expansions have been announced and potential shippers are assessing the alternatives to determine which projects they support. “The increase in our overall production is important but the changing mix of the Canadian crude slate from traditional conventional crude to oil sands heavy blends and synthetic crude is also a big issue for the industry,” says Greg Stringham, Vice President, Markets and Fiscal Policy at CAPP. “It’s critically important for pipelines and refineries to be able to process both the added volumes of crude and the new mix.” Oil sands production, which now exceeds one million b/d, is forecast to reach 3.5 million b/d by 2015 and 4.0 million b/d by 2020, accounting for more than 80 per cent of Canadian production. Production of conventional crude oil has declined gradually in Canada since the late 1990s. Although the lifespan of conventional producing wells is being extended as marginal wells are economic due to higher oil prices, conventional production continues to decline, from one of every two barrels produced today to one in five barrels by 2020. CAPP’s 2006 production forecast contains two supply scenarios based on the evolution of what producers use for diluent to blend bitumen crude. The two supply scenarios compare using synthetic crude oil or importing condensate. In addition, a constrained production case shows how delays in the growth of markets, pipelines, infrastructure, equipment and labour could potentially slow oil sands development. Click here for more background information. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents 150 companies that explore for, develop and produce more than 95 per cent of Canada’s natural gas and crude oil. CAPP also has 130 associate member companies that provide a wide range of services that support the upstream oil and natural gas industry. Together, these members and associate members are an important part of a $100-billion-a-year national industry that affects the livelihoods of more than half a million Canadians. -30- |
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